The U.S. Air Force is reassessing its plans for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, a project once envisioned to replace the aging F-22. The program faces mounting uncertainty as technological advancements in drones and cost concerns prompt a reconsideration of the initial design. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall signaled a shift in strategy, stating that the current concept, designed several years ago, may no longer meet modern demands.
The NGAD program initially aimed to deliver a cutting-edge fighter capable of dominating airspace in contested environments. However, Kendall now suggests the projected price tag of $300 million per aircraft is unfeasible, favoring a lower cost range between $80-100 million, similar to the F-35. This drastic cost reduction could lead to significant changes in the design, including potentially reducing engine capacity, range, and payload.
Technological leaps, particularly in unmanned aircraft and drone systems, are driving the rethink. The rise of “robo-wingmen” and other autonomous systems has challenged the Air Force’s reliance on traditional manned aircraft. As a result, Kendall left open the possibility of crewed and uncrewed variants of the NGAD fighter, though specifics remain under wraps due to the classified nature of the program.
The Air Force was expected to select a contractor for NGAD this year, with Lockheed Martin and Boeing seen as frontrunners. However, other defense giants like Northrop Grumman are now positioning themselves to play a role in whatever form NGAD ultimately takes. A decision on the future direction of the program is expected within the next few months, as Congress and industry players apply pressure for clarity.
Air superiority remains a critical priority for the military, but evolving threats and cost considerations are forcing the Air Force to rethink its approach. The coming months will be pivotal in determining the future of this high-stakes program.